You Make The Call (Or Fold (Or Raise)) II

Here's a somewhat similar situation to the last You Make The Call post. Still pretty early in a No-Limit Hold'em Tourney at Phil's (blinds are 20/40), I find myself in mid-position with 7h 8h. Sean, one to my right, limped in and I followed behind him. Action folded around to the blinds, SB calls and BB checks.

Flop is 8d Th 3c. Everyone checks to me, and I make it $100 to go. Both blinds fold, and Sean calls.

Turn is 8s (sweet). Sean checks, I bet $300. Sean calls. Hmmm..... two check-calls.

River is Td, the worst card that could have come. The board is now 8d Th 3c 8s Td. Sean bets $300. I have about $2,300 left, and Sean has about $2,000 left.

So the question is, do you call, fold or raise?

Nigerian Princes Have Emigrated To England!

Do you get a lot of spam? On one of my old email addresses that I still have to use, I do. Just got this email, and it made me chuckle. Instead of the normal splash of images and exclamation points to get my attention, this note contained no images and was written in courier font, as you might expect a government note would be. The good news is, it will only cost me $98 to get an ATM card worth $1.5 million! I plan to use my money to get our nation back to a budget surplus.


UNITED STATES POSTAL INSPECTION SERVICE, 
PO BOX 555, NEW YORK NY 10116-0555 
EMAIL: upsinspector@in.com


This is to notify you that we have intercepted your parcel from DHL COURIER SERVICE is making the delivery and we have stopped the delivery process for some 


security reasons stated below:


1.  Our scanning system has detected that your parcel contains a confirmable ATM CARD to the tune of $1,500,000.00 USD.


2.  Such ATM CARD coming from African /Europe/Asia is been verified by the POSTAL INSPECTION SERVICE which we have directed our inspection team to proceed 


with the verification to ascertain the authenticity of the ATM CARD and now after all the verification on the Parcel/ATM CARD, having contacted the issuing 


institution who made it known to our office that the ATM CARD is a Genuine one and Not ILLEGALLY ACQUIRED. We have also forwarded the Serial Number of the 


ATM CARD to the U.S, Treasury Department and they confirmed that the CARD is Authentic and ready to be cashed at any ATM MACHINES.


Also for the Delivery of the Parcel to continue, you are in obligation to obtain from England, a Duly Sworn Affidavit from British High Court which will back 


up the Origin of Fund. This is in line with the Anti-Terrorist Campaign which the USA Government has embarked on recently to protect our Territory from 


future attacks. You should therefore contact the sender of the ATM CARD or the DHL Courier Agent in LOndon,England to get the Sworn Affidavit for you while 


we wait to receive from you the Affidavit File Number to enable us forward your ATM CARD to your address. 


Below is his contact information. Note that the cost of the Affidavit is $98 and do not hesitate to remit the amount to him.


Name: David Martins
Email address: dmartins2000@bellsouth.net
Tel: +44 704 570 5374


We shall then forward the ATM CARD to you and you will be sure of a genuine ATM CARD that is coming to you.  We are doing this for your interest considering 


the rate which fraudulent and stolen checks/ATM CARD are been sent to our innocent citizen that most times put them in problem. Always send your 


correspondence to our secure email: upsinspector@in.com


Your urgent action on this notice will be appreciated.


Sincerely,


Walter Moore
Chief Postal Inspector

Meet the Natives

I don't watch a lot of TV, but when I do, I usually resort to the same old shows since not much on is worth the time it takes to watch. I wonder how many more channels we would need to get some decent shows. Some of the shows I turn on when there is nothing on are Dirty Jobs, Criminal Minds, Numb3rs and Fringe. Yeah, sorta nerdy, sorry. But I found a new show tonight that was severely entertaining and in many ways heartwarming and educational: Meet the Natives.

I am fascinated by tribal cultures and have been known to begin nonsensical rants with, "well, if we all lived back in tribal times...". But I find a lot of documentaries boring. Some of the shows where guys, usually British for some reason, insert themselves into a tribe for a spell can be pretty interesting but often feel stretched out and sometimes staged. This show center around five ambassadors from a small culture from the pacific island Tanna. They have an odd system of beliefs and connections with the West, specifically with Prince Philip and a WWII guy who went by (I'm guessing) the nome de guerre Tom Navy.

These guys ditch their traditional nambas for clothes that will keep them warm in the U.S., and they travel to five locations to spread their message of peace and happiness: Montana, New York City, Peoria, IL, Orange County, CA, and Ft.Stewart GA/Washington D.C. And their message comes through. They are quick to point out with a refreshingly simple honesty many of the things they see in our lives that are the same, that are great and that they do not like. It is both an interesting and fun show, although I admit it brought to mind various newsletters from a simpler day, when some brave ambassadors from the University of Dayton spread their own messages of peace, brotherly love and jock-strap nambas.

Audit the Fed

As anyone who follows politics realizes quickly, some things stay the same, some things change. I've been shocked that this Audit the Fed bill, pushed by Rep. Ron Paul, has gotten as far as it has. First off, who cares about monetary policy? Second, with super corrupt politicans running both parties, who'd a thunk that they would support the audit of an organization that so many of them, just months ago, said should run the unsupervised distribution of trillions of taxpayer dollars. Ahhhh yes, the voters are mad. I guess that still makes a difference in this day and age. Voters getting mad has changed, politicians doing anything to keep their jobs has not.

I encourage you to watch this whole video, it's not super long, just over 13 minutes. Take the time to understand how confused some of these experts are on the difference between auditing an organization and controlling it (would they object to a corporation getting audited as the same thing as relinquishing control of it?). Look how mad the opening Republican is. I also especially like the ending of it, where the healthcare bill slips into conversation, as does Clute, TX.

Illusory superiority

I am a decent cook. Actually, I am an above average cook. I don't do it a ton- my wife (God bless her) does much more than me. But when I actually do head into the kitchen to make something, it usually turns out to be pretty good.

At least that is what I have for a long time believed about myself.

Then Sept. 23 rolled around and that entire thought was blown to pieces.

Before I finish the above story, I need to delve into something called "illusory superiority." This is a bias that exists in each one of our minds that makes us either overestimate what we see as desirable qualities in ourselves or underestimate the degree of what we see as negative qualities. This defense mechanism creates a belief in our mind that we are better at those things we wish we were good at than we really are. A classic example of this was a study done by a researcher named Swenson in 1981 that surveyed Swedish and American drivers about their driving ability. What they found was pretty impressive- nearly all (93%) of the American drivers thought that they were in the top 50% of drivers with regards to driving skill and safety. Swedish drivers were not quite as generous but still thought they were better than they probably were (69% placed themselves in the top 50%). With regards to safety as an individual measurement, 88% of the US group and 77% of the Swedish group put themselves in the top 50%.

This effect of illusory superiority has been demonstrated time and again and brings us to a very uncomfortable conclusion- none of us are as good as we think we are in nearly every aspect of our lives. For instance, I have been involved in 4 car accidents as a driver, three in which the car I was driving was totalled (one of the contributors to this blog and one of its frequent readers might remember one of these events). Yet, despite this, I would not only say that I am in the top 50% of safe drivers out there, but I would also probably say that I am in the top 10% of safe drivers on the road.

This brings me back to the story of Sept. 23. As I mentioned above, I have always thought of myself as an above average cook. On Sept. 23, my wife's birthday, I decided to make her a cake. A german chocolate cake to be exact. I had visions of this cake turning out perfectly and me winning years of "Good husband points" as a result. But the truth of the matter was not quite so pretty. The cake, to put it mildly, sucked. I forgot to put icing between the two layers of the cake so it literally started to fall apart about 10 minutes after I iced it. To make matters worse, this was not a cake made from scratch. This was actually a box cake and it practically made itself, or would have if I knew what in the world I was doing. In the end, it looked like a bear had eaten a bag of shredded coconut and then crapped on a cake platter. Here are two pictures- see for yourself.

My wife was great about this. I actually acumulated all the necessary karma points but she did email the above picture to all of her friends. I would have, too, if I were her.

So this above experience has caused me to try to take an accurate assessment of my life. I am trying to get outside of the illusory superiority that exists in my brain and see if I can identify where I really stand on certain skills. Below is a list of aspects of life that people often think that they are better than they really might be. After much reflection, the first ranking is what I now think is an accurate assessment of where I truly stand on these skills. The rankings in parentheses are actually where I used to believe I stood (100% being the best in the world, 0% being the worst).

Athletics: 40%- this is difficult. I think that I am a top 20% runner but yet I am a bottom 20% basketball/football player. Since most people's idea of sports is weighted towards team sports rather than things like running, I give myself a less then 50% vote- (80%)
Sense of humor/wit: 80%- (70%)
Driving: 95%- (40%)
My skill at my profession: 90%- (75%)
Looks: 50%- (50%)
Poker playing ability: 25%- (25%)
Photography: 80%- (50%)

Please feel free to comment on your own assessment of yourself or your assessment of my assessment of myself.

Going Rouge

Ahhhh, Sarah Palin is back in the news. Or maybe she never left. What an odd phenomenon she represents in both the U.S. and in "conservative" circles. With her new book coming out, some are rushing to the stores to snatch their copy of "Going Rogue". Actually, more than some, she already enjoys one of the highest nonfiction opening days in history, selling over 300,000 copies (just under Bill Clinton's first day, but surpassing Hillary's).

Mrs. Palin is a surprisingly complex woman. She is a walking composite wedge issue -- you can find something to like or hate in her, depending on what's important to you. This makes her both divisive and perhaps less important ultimately than her attention warrants. Let's hit upon some issues she seems to represent as well as some of the traits she embodies that have so many people talking about her.

She's pretty.

I think it's tough to deny that Sarah Palin is a pretty woman. Many liberals might gag at this because they are overwhelmed by her other attributes, but they would probably have no trouble saying Tina Fey is pretty. Mrs. Palin is attractive enough (but not too attractive) to invite the admiration of other women. In men, she might stir a chivalrous reaction. Beauty is one of the first things we notice about people, and we spend an inordinate amount of time looking at our politicians on TV. So it's hard to throw out looks as unimportant, especially when so many female politicians trend in the other direction.

She's a full time employee, full time mom.

This is one of the most important draws in my mind for Mrs. Palin. The women of Generation X have been the first generation in America raised on the bad medicine that they can have it all. Actually, depending on who you are and where you're from, many women have been taught to put their careers first and hold off on family. But one way or the other, millions of working women, working moms and soccer moms across the nation struggle to find this balance in their own lives just to survive. Mrs. Palin has five children, a grandchild from her single daughter, a decent if unremarkable husband and was the governor of Alaska. Talk about a full plate -- a plate full of modern day apple pie successes and problems. It's not so much that other women look to her as "she's done it", but they look to her as "she struggles just like me."

She's a simpleton.

I mean this with all due respect. There's nothing wrong with keeping it simple on a personal level. But in many ways, when I hear Mrs. Palin talk, I am instantly reminded of Dan Quayle. In fact, the parallels are numerous: Vice-president material, concerns about ability or gravitas, good looking, etc. [For full disclosure, I have an autographed copy of Dan Quayle's "Standing Firm" that my dear mom stood in line to get signed and gave to me as a present. Dan Quayle and I share our alma mater and are both better than average golfers. His book was as difficult to read as you might imagine.]

This is where the MSM really lurched at Mrs. Palin. Recall the inappropriate Charles Gibson interview, where he cornered Mrs. Palin about the "Bush doctrine." I had never heard of the Bush doctrine either, and I follow these things fairly closely. In fact, I doubt Mr. Bush accomplished enough as president to establish any doctrine of note -- I've never heard anyone else speak of the "Bush doctrine." Well, watching Mrs. Palin squirm was a telling moment for both "sides". One group thought this proved she was an idiot, the other group thought it proved the MSM is rigged and she could hold her cool under pressure. In either case, this childish tactic could have backfired on Mr. Gibson as his ratings continued to drop and he was eventually forced to announce his "retirement" this September.

There are numerous other stories and quotes that one group interepreted one way and another group the other way. What Mrs. Palin may lack in worldly experience she seems to make up for in honesty and common sense -- two qualities dearly lacking in D.C. However, common sense can only go so far especially when the office of President of the United States is concerned.

Guns, Abortion, Christianity

This decently clever photoshopped picture to the left sums up a lot of images that people like or hate to have about Sarah Palin. On guns, she's a hunter, and all winter long her family lives off harvested meat. On abortion, she has five children, one has autism, and her single daughter has a child. She has not only made it verbally clear, but walks the walk that abortion is not an acceptable part of her life. She is an unabashed Christian, although her apparent membership in a Seventh-Day Adventist Church is as controversial as it is reassuring to traditional Christians.

By contrast in the previous election, our current president made fun of small town folks -- explaining them away practically as aliens to a more important crowd in San Francisco -- for bitterly clinging to guns and religion. He had also said that he would advise his own daughter to abort his own grandchild if the situation should ever occur that she might be saddled with an unexpected baby. Quite a contrast indeed. This political gap on hot-button issues of our time immediately made Palin a star and enemy to many.

Who else is the GOP gonna turn to?

This is perhaps the saddest truth about the situation. John McCain was a straight talk express trainwreck of a candidate. His independence streak ended up not emerging from strong, unshakable principles, where the rest of the world zig-zagged around him as he remained constant as the northern star. No, his "maverick" ways were the result of a superficial political expediency, going which ever way he could to make a name for himself and appear bi-partisan. By the end of the day, he was clearly more aligned with Joe Lieberman than conservatives like Ron Paul. He knew he was losing and needed a boost. In swings the dea ex machina Palin.

And now that the GOP has been thoroughly destroyed and humiliated for its sins of the recent past, there is a vacuum of power and direction in the party. Things are so bad for the brand that characters ranging from Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck to Mitt Romney and Mike "Shucks" Huckabee to Bobby Jindal and Tim Pawlenty, and yes, even to Sarah Palin are being thrown around as the "future" of the party. The GOP is so clueless even now as to why it lost so badly while it helped destroy our country that it is further exaggerating its own limited imagination, as its website is trying to make the party look home to diversity and multiculturalism. (This from a group so lacking in free speech concerns that they wouldn't let Ron Paul on the stage in some debates!) I know there are and have been plenty of black Republicans, but let's not let reality get completely distorted. African-Americans as a group continue to be political sheep, and they baaaa towards the Democrat side, not the Republican. The GOP will get nowhere chasing race.

Meanwhile, "conservatives" are rising up all over the country in reaction to the liberal landslide in what appears to be independent thought and outrage. As the GOP tries to take advantage of this, they continue to betray the truth of their own allegiance to big power, not to the people. Here is a very recent speech by John Boehner, arguably the most powerful GOP left in office, as he completely confuses the Constitution with the Declaration of Inedependence (imagine the uproar if Nancy Pelosi had made the same mistake? Ahh, the conservative movement has far to go in honesty and alertness)

[I deeply apologize for asking the reader to watch Rick Sanchez, who is absolutely awful.]

She's a real person.

This may seem like an empty or sarcastic comment, but I saved it for last as I believe it ultimately is Mrs. Palin's greatest charm and attraction (and her greatest real public attribute). It is also perhaps her most unspoken aspect and one that Americans need to be willing to talk about in regard to whom we elect as leaders. We know where Mrs. Palin comes from. We know where she grew up. She has a regional accent. She doesn't come from privilege. She is as typical as most girls are in this country. Contrast that with politicians like George Bush and Al Gore, who claim to be from states they're not really from; who were raised by political families and groomed purposefully albeit poorly to become something they were incapable of becoming, and yet were forced upon us anyway.

Compare that to our current president, who was born in Hawaii, had his father abandon his family, spent a good chunk of his childhood in Indonesia with a step father, lived in Kansas for awhile, travelled the world on someone else's dime, was finally baptised for the establishment by Harvard, is torn between two religious identities, two racial cultures and is more a child of the world than a child of the United States. Despite (or because of) the idiotic birthers movement, very few people openly questioned the importance of the background of our president. Or perhaps because his background was so hard to define, we could barely even talk about it -- a lot of simplistic lies really hampered discussion. Now along comes a person like Sarah Palin. And she is attacked by many for precisely the things we should be seeking in leaders: some kind of normalcy.

The Other White Meat

If you're in the Lou this Friday night and looking for some rock n roll, head down to Vito's. Known for their ability to make people dance and at times inspire riots, Pork has been a local favorite since the mid-90's.

Although their relationship with their fans has often been described as lustful (their really love their fans), tensions in the last 6 years have actually kept the band offstage. While never officially breaking up, the band hasn't played a show since January 3, 2003. The reason for the disharmony? An intra-band dispute over writing credits for their songs. But fortunately for the St. Louis music scene, the band has come to a consensus that the majority of their songs were probably written by Mick Jagger and Keith Richards.

So if you're a fan of The Rolling Stones, The Who, Bob Dylan, or any other band, come on down to Vito's and check out Pork, who will take the stage about 10:30. And... I'll be sitting in with them on bass, trying to do my best Bill Wyman impression (or at least my best Mike Callahan impression).

Hope to see you there!